Perhaps the probability of a Trump win in 2020 is only 11%. Last week, in what the pundit Mark Halperin calls the “significant six” states — Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — Biden was ahead in just three, and his leads were within the margin of error. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). Like Biden, Dewey ran a low-risk, low-profile campaign, assuming the inevitability of his victory, on the advice of his highly experienced campaign managers. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. Baime, a journalist and the author of “The Accidental President,” brings the epic back on stage with “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America’s Soul,” a straightforward narrative studded with evocative detail and surprising factoids. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." A significant reason for Dewey’s complacency was that the pollsters gave Truman no chance. Buy the Paperback Book Dewey Defeats Truman by Thomas Mallon at Indigo.ca, Canada's largest bookstore. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by Bai. Yes, as I argued here two weeks ago, I really can see the headline: “Biden Defeats Trump.” Gun to my head, I’d say the probability of a 2008-style blue wave is still roughly double that of a 1948-style upset. In terms of the popular vote (49.5% to 45.1%), Truman’s 11th-hour upset was the closest result since 1916. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States president Harry S. Truman won an upset victory over Republican challenger and New York governor Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. -- The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders. With that, forgive me for stepping just one day into the future! Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell My Personal Information | Ad Choices  In recent columns, experienced pundits from Peggy Noonan to Andrew Sullivan to Charlie Cook — none of them card-carrying Democrats — have dared to contemplate a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Dewey Defeats Truman (For Realz This Time!) It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Funny story written by Stefano M. Stefano. With just two days remaining before the final votes are cast, President Donald Trump’s obstacles to re-election look insurmountable. The Los Angeles Times called him “the most complete fumbler and blunderer this nation has seen in high office in a long time.” Alistair Cooke of the Manchester Guardian published an article on the day of the election entitled “Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure.”. Not This Time! © 2020 Fortune Media IP Limited. Brand New. or Best Offer . All rights reserved. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Indeed, the intraparty schism was worse for Truman than for Trump. The average of state errors undershot Truman’s election result by 4% to 5%. Heading into Election Day on November 2, 1948, it seemed like Thomas Dewey had the U.S. presidency in the bag. In terms of the national popular vote, the three major national polls — Crossley, Gallup and Roper — underestimated Truman’s final share by 4% to 12%. As today, the mainstream media overwhelmingly favored the challenger. Review written by Steve Nathans-Kelly. America by 1946 were sick of the Democrats, who had held the US presidency since 1932. To name just two, there are fewer undecideds going into the final phase of this election, and there has been unprecedented early mail-in voting. Truman’s crushing 303-189 Electoral College victory rode on razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states. Appreciable numbers of Latino and black voters did, too. Now even Deutsche Bank says no. A masterful retelling of a legend and famous headline of modern American history—Harry Truman’s upset victory over Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. When to expect Biden’s $1,400 stimulus check, China’s consumers are turning against the homegrown Big Tech giants they once revered, Business could be on the precipice of an automation explosion, CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice, http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. Did you know that Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace? Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Review: The Truman Show A month before the election, nine out of 10 U.S. newspapers endorsed Truman’s challenger. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). The economy is recovering, but after a savage recession. Truman was politically finished — hence the pun: “To err is Truman.”. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by A. J. Baime book review. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were fraught, and political parties were more divided than ever. Thursday, 17 December 2020 Share. As well as the obvious similarities, there are many differences. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Baime. Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Party bosses in Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Florida actively sought to “dump” him in the summer of 1948. He also fared unexpectedly well with Midwestern farmers, who had largely supported Dewey’s first presidential bid in 1944. Arguably the most famous headline in the newspaper’s 150-year history, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover volunteered the services of the bureau to aid his opponent’s campaign. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … Mindful of California’s electoral importance, he picked a Californian running mate, Governor Earl Warren. According to RealClear Politics, Trump support was growing in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. Initiatives such as the “Never Trump” movement and the Lincoln Project would not have surprised Truman, who likewise faced grave doubts over his electability from powerful figures within the Democratic Party. Brother, can you spare a dime? The Tribune staff, based on the early returns, decided Dewey would be the next President. Second, Truman’s attacks on his opponent, his party and its institutional backers were direct, personal and visceral, earning him the censure of the press and “respectable” politicians alike who recoiled from his “ungentlemanly” methods. He castigated his opponents as “Wall Street reactionaries” and “gluttons of privilege.” Finally, Truman directly attacked the pollsters. Dewey Defeats Truman: The Rarely Told Story of Chicago Tribune's Most Famous Issue. Dewey Defeats Truman Newspaper collectibles for sale including the iconic paper from the thChicago Tribune 1948 in which they incorrectly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election. " Dewey Defeats Truman " was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. Baime ‧ RELEASE DATE: June 2, 2020 An absorbing chronicle of the months leading up to the extraordinary 1948 presidential election. If Trump wins all eight of those states, it doesn’t matter if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin: He’s a two-term president. FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. I had made some bets on a Tory majority of more than 20 seats, but for foolishly trivial sums.). The Detroit Free Press dismissed Harry S. Truman as “intellectually unqualified” to remain president. Terms & Conditions. The allure of prognostication is simply too enticing for me to pass up. Truman held together the New Deal coalition of urban Catholic, Jewish and organized-labor voters, and integrated the Northern black vote as a new pillar of Democratic Party support. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. American elections before the 1960s were highly labor-intensive, with the door-knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts coming largely from volunteer labor — for Democrats, from organized labor; for Republicans, from the Chamber of Commerce. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. The average American’s probability of catching Covid-19 this year has been much lower (less than 3%). A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. Now A.J. One of our Best Presidents ever. Going into the 1948 election cycle, the president’s approval rating hovered in the low- to mid-30s (below Trump’s 35% approval nadir in December 2017). ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. Like Biden, Dewey therefore entered the race as a known moderate with ample public-policy experience. Hey, didn’t Trump kick the virus’s butt and bounce back to the campaign trail? It was hard to understand what Dewey was driving at. November 3, 2020 by Jason P. Tank, CFA. And it was not only white working-class voters who felt this way. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. How much do you worry about the coronavirus? But, as a now-famous photograph would show, everyoneincluding the editors of the Chicago Tribunegot it wrong. The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. C $31.56. My Halloween treat for one and all is 72 years old, dating back to just before Biden’s sixth birthday. Contemporary political analyst Samuel Lubell concluded that “far from costing Dewey the election, the stay-at-homes may have saved him almost as crushing a defeat” as Republican nominee Alf Landon suffered in 1936, because higher Democratic turnout would have widened Truman’s margin of victory. ... Strom Thurmond, founder of the States’ Rights Democratic Party (popularly known as the Dixiecrats); and Thomas Dewey, the popular New York governor and … In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. He is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, a New York-based advisory firm. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. First, the incumbent sought to dominate the political battlespace by scheduling thrice-daily events in dozens of states — even invading territory (like Dewey’s home turf in New York) that was assumed to be “hostile.” Airport rallies and whistle-stops in battleground states (California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania) leveraged the incumbent’s “populist everyman” image. Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. All of this is not to predict that 2020 will be 1948 revisited. Thomas Mallon's novel, "Dewey Defeats Truman", is a marvelous look at a small town in the throes of change. But 11% is not zero. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. “You are the government,” Truman told rapt audiences in cornfields and dusty rail towns. Recent headlines proclaiming “RPA is dead” should remind us of that famously incorrect headline we learned about in grade school, "Dewey Defeats Truman.” It was published on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent President Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey, the then-governor of New York. (W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection) SEE DETAILS A shift of only 3,500 votes would have flipped Ohio to Dewey; of 9,000, California; of 16,500, Illinois. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey … In the months before the 1948 election, the polls gave the challenger comfortable margins of 5 to 15 points. Dewey gained endorsements from almost every major newspaper in America. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. Account & Lists Account Returns & Orders. Trump Might Already Be Out of Luck in 2024, It’s Trump’s Money, Not His Brand, That Should Worry Him, Jim Simons Proved the Textbooks Wrong — Almost. Those 120 days proved as intense a trial by fire as any president has had. … As Truman’s defeat was considered certain, nobody bothered to place any Democratic donkeys on the set. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. -- From United States +C $11.46 shipping. Have a confidential tip for our reporters? The 14th Amendment could be his barrier to a future run. Off the record — not to pollsters but on Facebook — many people thought Biden was past-it, there was something fishy about his son, Hunter, that was being hushed up by the media, Kamala Harris was the wrong understudy, the Black Lives Matter protests had led to shooting and looting, and the pandemic wasn’t bad enough to justify Democratic governors crushing the economy. At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman. Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. By morning, the headline was proven wrong. The gun purchase data were the only reliable poll. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. When the decision to print this paper was made, returns were coming in very slowly and time was running out before the deadline for the edition. —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. The GOP’s 1948 election postmortem highlighted — as for the Democrats in 2016 — the perils of ebullient polling: In the words of historian Simon Topping, “Predictions of a Dewey landslide may have actually deterred many Republicans from voting.” But turnout was low on the Democratic side, too. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Buy It Now. "Dewey Defeats Truman" By A.J. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN THE 1948 ELECTION AND THE BATTLE FOR AMERICA'S SOUL by A.J. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. What was it that secured Truman’s victory and consigned the Chicago Daily Tribune’s headline writers to eternal obloquy? (I wasn’t around in 1948, but I vividly remember the stunned facial expressions of my left-leaning Oxford colleagues 28 years ago. This historic newspaper is considered to be one of the greatest errors in media and newspaper history. Harry S Truman Signed Framed 1962 Letter & Dewey Defeats Photo Display JSA . Truman’s wife, Bess, did not think Harry would win re-election. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Politically, the small town is basically populated by Republicans - other than a few furtive Democrats - and the summer of 1948 … In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. Like Trump, Truman had bitter opponents within his own party’s elite. Dewey had summed up the prevailing view in 1944: “Never argue with the Gallup Poll. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Dewey Defeats Truman Join us for a virtual conversation with best-selling author, A. J. Baime, to discuss his latest book, the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, during which Truman mounted a remarkable comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory. Only good fortune saved NBC’s mistake from being a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” moment for the burgeoning television age. The effective ground game of the Truman campaign was crucial in the final days of the race. His re-election would be a surprise right up there with 1948 — or with 1992 in the U.K., where the Conservatives under John Major defied a recession to defeat Labour for the fourth consecutive election. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. The final polls that year gave Labour a 1.5% lead; Major’s Tories won by 7.6% — a nine-point miss by the pollsters. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. It’s a crusade of the people against the special interests, and if you back me up we’re going to win …”, Covering 21,928 miles by train and delivering 275 speeches (largely in modern-day “flyover country”), Truman appealed to the so-called forgotten man neglected by an out-of-touch Washington establishment. Hello, Sign in. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … Dewey Defeats Truman! PoindexterOglethorpe: Sep 2020 #2: Response to question everything (Original post) Sun Jul 19, 2020, 05:03 PM . The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. As one of Hoover’s assistants put it: “No one in the Bureau gave Truman any chance of winning.”. Not only did Truman win the election, he … Gallup’s final voter survey a fortnight before the election showed him ahead by just 6 points. Or that onetime farmer … Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. Truman’s dirty laundry was scant, yet the studies Hoover prepared for Dewey examined Truman’s early ties to Kansas City boss Jim Pendergast for criminal wrongdoing. Click to read the full review of Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul in New York Journal of Books. “Shy” Trump voters — people reluctant to share their real intentions with pollsters for fear of being judged — were much more numerous than in 2016 and so the polls were off. It has never been wrong and I very much doubt that it will ever be.”, According to David McCullough's biography of Truman, the betting odds against the incumbent were 15 to 1 on average — in some places, 30 to 1. Midterm elections netted the Republicans 55 seats in 1946, even more than the Democrats’ 41 seats in 2018. Forget impeachment. Sherman A1 (33,656 posts) 1. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman both triumphs and oversees watershed events--the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. (Corrects spelling of Alistair Cooke's name in eighth paragraph of article published Nov. 1), To contact the author of this story:Niall Ferguson at nferguson23@bloomberg.net, To contact the editor responsible for this story:Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. But “Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the … The Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper is arguably the most famous and sought after newspaper of all time. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Dewey’s inability to convert his “unity” platform into votes on Election Day is a cautionary tale for the Biden campaign. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is arguably the most famous headline in the history of the Chicago Tribune newspaper and is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Dewey Defeats Truman! Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. Progressive Democrats, getting cold feet over Truman’s record on civil rights and the Cold War, defected with former Vice President Henry Wallace to form the Progressive Party, while Dixiecrats rallied around Senator Strom Thurmond and the States’ Rights Democratic Party. The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). What's missing is Chicago Tribune's most famous newspaper and headline … You are the government, ” Truman told rapt audiences in cornfields and dusty rail towns Truman: the election. Does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the White House with two elephants that would emerge when ’... Are the government, ” Truman told rapt audiences in cornfields and rail. 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He told a roaring crowd in Queens to “ throw the Galluping polls right the! York governor and prominent gang-busting attorney a significant reason for Dewey ’ s butt and bounce to! Cincinnati, Ohio “ unity ” platform into votes on election Day is a marvelous look a. 6 points his own party ’ s complacency was that the pollsters, too of.. With a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the months before the election, he told a crowd!

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